Oil Report:
A surge of new oil projects is set to come online this year, marking the biggest boost to global crude production in over ten years, according to Raymond James. Projects from Brazil to Saudi Arabia are expected to increase fresh oil output by about 2.9 million barrels per day in 2025, a significant rise from 800,000 barrels in 2024. This influx of new supply is the largest since Raymond James began tracking data in 2015.
Notable projects driving this expansion include the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan, Bacalhau in Brazil, and the Berri and Marjan expansions in Saudi Arabia. These new developments, however, could be delayed, and the projections for 2025 and 2026 remain subject to change.
In a year where global oil supply is expected to outpace demand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates an oversupply of 100,000 barrels per day. Similarly, the International Energy Agency predicts a surplus of 600,000 barrels per day. Raymond James analysts forecast that by the end of 2025, supply may surpass demand by 280,000 barrels daily.
Pavel Molchanov, a Raymond James analyst, emphasized that investors may not fully appreciate the scale of new oil supply coming online in 2025, which could have significant implications for global energy markets.