EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Bears Hold Short-term Dominance, Bulls Must Defend The 20-day SMA

The EUR/JPY currency pair is currently trading with mild losses, hovering around 163.75. Despite a positive broader market sentiment, indicators on the daily chart point to a potential shift towards negative momentum. The hourly chart, however, shows some recovery in RSI and MACD, indicating increased buying momentum. Bulls need to maintain the 20-day SMA securely to fend off further dips.

Technical Analysis:

Daily Chart:

• RSI indicators remain in positive territory but show a downward trend, signaling a potential shift towards a negative trend.
• MACD prints decreasing green bars, reinforcing weakened bullish momentum.

Hourly Chart:

• RSI values display a positive slope, suggesting increased buying momentum.
• MACD histogram's red bars confirm the presence of negative momentum.
• Lowest peak at 31 indicates a shift to a bearish stance.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 164.24 (Daily Fibonacci 38.2%), 164.39 (Daily Pivot Point R1)
• Support: 163.94 (Daily Pivot Point S1), 163.73 (Daily Pivot Point S2), 162.76 (Daily SMA20)

Outlook:

Bulls need to defend the 20-day SMA (162.76) to maintain control of the market. A breach below this level could trigger further selling pressure, potentially pushing the pair lower towards the Daily Pivot Point S1 (163.94). On the other hand, a recovery above 164.13 (Daily Fibonacci 61.8%) could indicate a resurgence of bullish momentum.

Additional Observations:

• The broader market sentiment appears to favor the buyers, as EUR/JPY remains above its key SMAs of 20, 100, and 200 days.
• However, the indicators on the daily chart signal a potential shift in momentum, hinting at increased strength in selling pressure.
• Bulls need to maintain the 20-day SMA securely to fend off further dips and maintain control of the pair.

Table: EUR/JPY Overview